Sydney’s care economy is at breaking point, with a new report by independent think tank Committee for Sydney finding more than 60,000 older people will be without support by 2041 if drastic action isn’t taken to improve the care sector.

The new report, Raising Sydney’s Care Factor, reveals a ‘silver tsunami’ as our population gets older, alongside chronic housing unaffordability, workforce shortages and growing pressure on unpaid carers.

The ratio of people aged over 65 to working-age adults in Sydney is expected to climb from 29% to 42% by 2070, with Sydney’s north and northwest ageing fastest – and the areas ageing fastest are also among Sydney’s most critically unaffordable.

Care is Sydney’s largest employer, equating for 14% of the workforce, and 77% of care workers are women. Despite being the majority of the workforce, most female care workers earn between $52,000 and $65,000 annually compared to a male worker’s median salary of $104,000 to $156,000 – roughly double.

The report also found women in Sydney do an average of 13 additional hours of unpaid care work each week compared to men. Over a year, this equates to nearly 18 extra full-time weeks of unpaid work, putting many women at risk of career burn-out.

Estelle Grech, Report Author and Policy Manager at the Committee for Sydney:

“The care crisis is a culmination of so many issues – think travel costs and commuting distances for carers, housing unaffordability and long hours that have made it so much harder for the sector to thrive.”

“Unsurprisingly, much of the burden from this failing system falls on women, and as pressure on paid care grows, families will be forced to step back from the workforce to fill the gaps.

“If we keep on the current trajectory, tens of thousands of people – people in their late fifties and sixties now – will struggle to access care as the system collapses under the weight of an ageing population.

“Housing plays a central role in this care crisis.

“There are currently no rental homes in Sydney affordable for a typical aged care worker on a single income, even with a 20% discount to market rent.

“Rental prices are pushing carers further west, while the greatest demand for care is in the north and east. Even if affordable housing increased in these areas, a 20% discount would barely make a dent.

“To make matters worse, by 2041, much of the affordable housing being delivered today under the government’s 30% floor space bonus policy – which requires 15% affordable housing for just 15 years – will expire. This will only exacerbate the crisis, pricing out vital carers just as Sydney’s ageing population will increase demand for support.”

She said the answer for carers is care-oriented development:

“Sydney’s next frontier isn’t just transit-oriented development, it’s care-oriented development.

“By planning not only homes but also childcare, health services, and schools and community hubs within walking distance, we can cut the hours families spend carting kids or ageing parents across the city – and build liveable precincts where care, connection and convenience come together.

“Care-oriented development would make life easier for everyone, bringing homes closer to the essential services people rely on, ensuring affordable housing for essential workers near where they work. It’s about building communities that support the people who support all of us.

“Now is the moment to get the policy settings right. By expanding the supply and extending the lifespan of affordable housing and prioritising homes for essential workers, Sydney can secure the workforce it needs to care for an ageing population and build stronger, fairer and more resilient communities in the process.”

The report outlines six priorities to future-proof Sydney’s care economy:

1. Make care visible, valued and shared
2. Futureproof the workforce with training, fair pay and flexible supports
3. Simplify access through local care navigators and childcare expansion
4. Design cities that enable care and connection
5. Reform tax and regulation to fund sustainable care
6. Harness data, technology and innovation.

Key statistics in the report:

• 46% of female care workers are part-time, limiting job security, benefits and super, and reinforcing lifetime economic inequality
• $650 billion is the estimated annual value of unpaid care in Australia – half of the GDP
• 478,000 people or 11% of the adult population provide unpaid assistance to people with disability, long-term health condition or of old age
• The role is financially precarious: 40% of primary carers rely on a government allowance as their main source of income, compared with just 16% of non-carers
• Caring is often intensive: 30% of primary carers provide more than 40 hours of care per week, the equivalent of a full-time job
• Care workers mostly live in Western Sydney but jobs cluster in the east and north, causing large commuter flow out of the west (14%) and into the east and north (20%).